How to Plan for a Rare Threat or Weather Event

Whether it’s a crime, a meteor shower, a dam breach or a major hack attack, how can
security directors, managers (and even individuals) plan for the extremely rare threat event?

Even with the challenges of global warmings and changing patterns in society, and, apparently, in space, it’s still possible to anticipate and prepare for the outlier events.

You start with the known elements, for example, lately, some residential developers have been building in established flood plains, because, hey , there hasn’t been a flood in over 50 years.  But there are 100-year flood plains, 50-year flood plains and 200-year flood plains.  If your home, or facility, is located in a 50-year flood plain, and it’s been 48 years since the last flood, you can correctly infer that the next five years, you have an increased flood risk!

How to find out about flood risk?  If you live in the USA, you can go to, put in your zip code, and find out whether or not you are located in a flood plain, or flood prone area.  If you find out that you are, then you can add some additional preparation to make sure this threat is not going to materialize, or if it does, you’re ready!

Another example,  if your house/facility is in a high risk flood area, that means that there is a 1 in 4 chance (25% chance) that the property will experience a flood during the next 30 years.

If we look at chance of being hit by a meteor shower, we might find that a meteor hits the earth, with an impact, once every hundred years.   And so we take that 1 in 100 number and factor in the global surface, say divide it into 50 regions.  So that reduces that 1 in 100 number down to a much lesser number, maybe one in 100,000.

While the rare events are shocking when they occur, you can plan for them, by analyzing your risk, and putting in the proper controls so that if or when it happens, you’re ready and can continue to operate with the minimal of disruption!

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This entry was posted in Meteor showers, Natural Disasters, risk assessment, RiskAlert, Threat Assessment, Threat Sources, Tornadoes, and tagged , , , , , by Caroline Ramsey-Hamilton. Bookmark the permalink.

About Caroline Ramsey-Hamilton

Caroline Ramsey-Hamilton is a leading expert in assessing security risk in both information security and facilities security including security risk assessments, active shooter and security risk assessments for hospitals and healthcare organizations, cybersecurity, nuclear security, and also auditing, analyzing and measuring compliance with all major security standards, like DHS, FEMA 426-428, The Joint Commission, HIPAA Security & Privacy Rules, the HIPAA Omnibus Rule, and OSHA 3148 for Preventing Workplace Violence. And including both C-TPAT and CFATS. She is currently working on a universal set of easy security tools that will make it easy to assess risk in a variety of companies, agencies and business. Her company, Risk & Security LLC, works with more than 500 clients around the world using a program that standardizes site surveys and assessments and makes it easier to compare facilities and measure their level of security. She posts breaking security & risk alerts at She's also an animal lover and tree hugger, and musician who loves dogs, horses, kitties, house rabbits, parrots, and especially beagles! I support and other animal rescue organizations and work toward a more peaceful and green world.

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